The Impact of Tuberculosis on Economic Growth

Tuberculosis remains one of the most devastating diseases in the world, affecting people of all ages across the globe. This paper reviews the economic literature dealing with the theoretical and empirical links between poor health and low productivity, both at an individual and national level. It then conducts panel data analysis covering 91 countries, using an augmented Solow growth model and notification data of tuberculosis incidence from 1981 to 2000. Taking into account other national characteristics it finds that countries with a lower burden of tuberculosis grew faster than those which were more heavily afflicted. Although tests of robustness suggest that some of this effect may be due to reverse causality, there remains a persistent effect of between 0.2 and 0.4 percent lower growth for every 10 percent higher incidence of tuberculosis. This corresponds to an annual loss of between US$ 1.4 and 2.8 billion in economic growth worldwide.